Nearly three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his troops are making steady progress . Kyiv is grappling with shortages of men and weapons. And the new U.S. president could soon halt Ukraine91裸聊视频檚 massive supply of military aid.
Putin is closer than ever to achieving his objectives in the battle-weary country, with little incentive to come to the negotiating table, no matter how much U.S. President Donald Trump might cajole or threaten him, according to Russian and Western experts interviewed by The Associated Press.
Both are signaling discussions on Ukraine -91裸聊视频� by phone or in person -91裸聊视频� using flattery and threats.
Putin said Trump was and even parroted his false claims of having won the 2020 election. Trump91裸聊视频檚 opening gambit was to call Putin 91裸聊视频渟mart91裸聊视频� and to threaten Russia with tariffs and oil price cuts, which the Kremlin brushed off.
Trump boasted during the campaign he could end the war in 24 hours, which later became six months. He91裸聊视频檚 indicated the U.S. is without Kyiv91裸聊视频檚 input, saying his administration already had 91裸聊视频渧ery serious91裸聊视频� discussions.
He suggested he and Putin could soon take 91裸聊视频渟ignificant91裸聊视频� action toward ending the war, in which Russia is suffering heavy casualties daily while its economy endures stiff Western sanctions, inflation and a serious labor shortage.
But the economy has not collapsed, and because Putin has unleashed the harshest crackdown on dissent since Soviet times, he faces no domestic pressure to end the war.
91裸聊视频淚n the West, the idea came from somewhere that it91裸聊视频檚 important to Putin to reach an agreement and end things. This is not the case,91裸聊视频� said Fyodor Lukyanov, who hosted a forum with Putin in November and heads Moscow91裸聊视频檚 Council for Foreign and Defense policies.
Talks on Ukraine without Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Putin wants to deal directly with Trump, cutting out Kyiv. That runs counter to the Biden administration91裸聊视频檚 position that echoed Zelenskyy91裸聊视频檚 call of 91裸聊视频淣othing about Ukraine without Ukraine.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频淲e cannot let someone decide something for us,91裸聊视频� , saying Russia wants the 91裸聊视频渄estruction of Ukrainian freedom and independence.91裸聊视频�
He suggested any such peace deal would send the dangerous signal that adventurism pays to authoritarian leaders in China, North Korea and Iran.
Putin appears to expect Trump to undermine European resolve on Ukraine. Likening Europe91裸聊视频檚 leaders to Trump91裸聊视频檚 lapdogs, he said Sunday they will soon be 91裸聊视频渟itting obediently at their master91裸聊视频檚 feet and sweetly wagging their tails91裸聊视频� as the U.S. president quickly brings order with his 91裸聊视频漜haracter and persistence.91裸聊视频�
Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess but Putin will not easily surrender what he considers Russia91裸聊视频檚 ancestral lands in Ukraine or squander a chance to punish the West and undermine its alliances and security by forcing Kyiv into a policy of neutrality.
Trump may want a legacy as a peacemaker, but 91裸聊视频渉istory won91裸聊视频檛 look kindly on him if he91裸聊视频檚 the man who gives this all away,91裸聊视频� said Sir Kim Darroch, British ambassador to the U.S. from 2016-19. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said a deal favoring Moscow would send a message of 91裸聊视频淎merican weakness.91裸聊视频�
Echoes of Helsinki
Trump and Putin last met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was 91裸聊视频渕utual respect91裸聊视频� between them, said former Finnish President Sauli Niinist枚, the summit host. But they are 91裸聊视频渘ot very similar,91裸聊视频� he added, with Putin a 91裸聊视频渟ystematic91裸聊视频� thinker while Trump acts like a businessman making 91裸聊视频減rompt91裸聊视频� decisions.
That could cause a clash because Trump wants a quick resolution to the war while Putin seeks a slower one that strengthens his military position and weakens both Kyiv and the West91裸聊视频檚 political will.
Zelenskyy told AP that Putin 91裸聊视频渄oes not want to negotiate. He will sabotage it.91裸聊视频� Indeed, Putin has already raised obstacles, including legal hurdles and claimed Zelenskyy has lost his legitimacy as president.
Putin hopes Trump will 91裸聊视频済et bored91裸聊视频� or distracted with another issue, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat in Geneva who quit his post after the invasion.
Russian experts point to Trump91裸聊视频檚 first term when they said Putin realized such meetings achieved little.
One was a public relations victory for Moscow in Helsinki where instead of his own intelligence agencies on whether Russia meddled in the 2016 election. Another was in Singapore in 2018 with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un when he to halt Pyongyang91裸聊视频檚 nuclear program.
Previous peace talks
The Kremlin last year said91裸聊视频� 91裸聊视频痶hat Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Istanbul early in the conflict 91裸聊视频� but which Kyiv rejected 91裸聊视频� could be the basis for talks.
It demanded Ukraine91裸聊视频檚 neutrality, stipulated NATO deny it membership, put limits on Kyiv91裸聊视频檚 armed forces and delayed talks on the status of four Russian-occupied regions that Moscow later annexed illegally.91裸聊视频� Moscow also dismissed91裸聊视频� , pay compensation to Ukraine and face an international tribunal for its action.
Putin hasn91裸聊视频檛 indicated he will budge but said 91裸聊视频渋f there is a desire to negotiate and find a compromise solution, let anyone conduct these negotiations.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频淓ngagement is not the same as negotiation,91裸聊视频� said Sir Laurie Bristow, British ambassador to Russia from 2016-20, describing Russia91裸聊视频檚 strategy as 91裸聊视频渨hat91裸聊视频檚 mine is mine. And what91裸聊视频檚 yours is up for negotiation.91裸聊视频�
Bondarev also said Putin sees negotiations only as a vehicle 91裸聊视频渢o deliver him whatever he wants,91裸聊视频� adding it91裸聊视频檚 91裸聊视频渁stonishing91裸聊视频� that Western leaders still don91裸聊视频檛 understand Kremlin tactics.
That means Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, since it promotes Russia as a global force and plays well domestically, but he will offer little in return.
What Trump can and can91裸聊视频檛 do
Trump said Zelenskyy should have made a deal with Putin to avoid war, adding he wouldn91裸聊视频檛 have allowed the conflict to start if he had been in office.
Trump has threatened Russia with more tariffs, sanctions and oil price cuts, but there is no economic 91裸聊视频渨onder weapon91裸聊视频� that can end the war, said Richard Connolly, a Russian military and economic expert at London91裸聊视频檚 Royal United Services Institute.
And the Kremlin is brushing off the threats, likely because the West already has heavily sanctioned Russia.
Trump also can91裸聊视频檛 guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO, nor can he lift all Western sanctions, easily force Europe to resume importing Russian energy or get the International Criminal Court to rescind its war crimes arrest warrant for Putin.
Speaking to the , Trump said he wants the alliance and Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices to push Putin to end the war. The Kremlin said that won91裸聊视频檛 work because the war is about Russian security, not the price of oil. It also would harm U.S. oil producers.
91裸聊视频淚n the tradeoff between Putin and domestic oil producers, I91裸聊视频檓 pretty sure which choice Trump will make,91裸聊视频� said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
Trump could pressure Russia by propping up the U.S. oil industry with subsidies and lift the 10% trade tariffs imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow, which could leave it 91裸聊视频渢ruly isolated,91裸聊视频� Connolly said.
Europe also could underscore its commitment to Kyiv 91裸聊视频� and curry favor with Trump 91裸聊视频� by buying U.S. military equipment to give to Ukraine, said Lord Peter Ricketts, a former U.K. national security adviser.
Lukyanov suggested that Trump91裸聊视频檚 allies often seem afraid of him and crumble under his threats.
The 91裸聊视频渂ig question,91裸聊视频� he said, is what will happen when Putin won91裸聊视频檛.
