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91ƵTime is running out91Ƶ: U.S. trade train moving fast, is Canada ready?

Expert group says Canada must get its house in order before formal CUSMA talks begin
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U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk prior to a NATO round table meeting at The Grove hotel and resort in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2019. A group of experts is sounding the alarm that Ottawa needs to rapidly ramp up efforts to build inroads with Americans or Canada will be disadvantaged in a looming review of a critical trade agreement. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Frank Augstein

A group of experts is sounding the alarm that Ottawa needs to swiftly make more inroads with Americans, or Canada will be deeply disadvantaged in a looming review of a crucial trade agreement.

91ƵTime is running out very rapidly for us,91Ƶ said Perrin Beatty, co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations.

The independent group, which includes former diplomats, policy advisers and business leaders, was created in recent months amid concern Ottawa was 91Ƶsleepwalking91Ƶ ahead of a 2026 review of the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement, Beatty said.

A new report from the expert group says Canada must get its house in order before formal talks begin. It calls on Ottawa to develop and initiate a clear strategy, appoint a chief negotiator and engage with Canada91Ƶs business community.

91ƵThe train is fast moving out of the station,91Ƶ said Beatty, also president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Negotiation of CUSMA, commonly dubbed 91Ƶthe new NAFTA91Ƶ in Canada, was a key test for Ottawa following Donald Trump91Ƶs victory in the 2016 presidential election.

91ƵThe new NAFTA is a victory for all Canadians, of every political view, and in all regions of the country,91Ƶ Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said in January 2020. 91ƵIt has been a real Team Canada effort.91Ƶ

Even so, Robert Lighthizer, Trump91Ƶs trade representative, critically recounted in his book how Canada handled the renegotiation, saying at one point the two countries weren91Ƶt speaking and 91ƵNAFTA was hanging on by a thread.91Ƶ

The new report describes Trump91Ƶs current relationship with the Liberal government as 91Ƶchilly at best.91Ƶ If Trump returns to the White House, he is likely to set his sights on disrupting global trade and has already signalled plans for a 10 per cent tariff on imports.

It doesn91Ƶt necessarily mean Canada can ease up efforts under a Democratic president. Joe Biden largely kept Trump91Ƶs tariffs in place, despite promises to reverse them. There was also tension over the Biden administration91Ƶs Buy American procurement rules.

Many expect Kamala Harris, working to secure the Democratic nomination after Biden ended his run, will follow the path of her predecessor on Canada-U.S. relations. Harris, however, was one of 10 U.S. senators to vote against the trilateral agreement under Trump, saying it didn91Ƶt do enough to protect American workers or the environment.

The federal government is tracking views about the agreement in Canada, the United States and Mexico, said Global Affairs Canada spokesperson Jean-Pierre Godbout. Ottawa is eyeing a range of potential scenarios for review, he said.

91ƵWhen the time comes, the government will be ready to advance and defend Canadian interests,91Ƶ Godbout said in an email.

Beatty said the problem is the relationship between the two countries has 91Ƶshifted from being strategic to being transactional.91Ƶ In addition, Canada has become a less important trade partner to the U.S. compared with other places in the world.

Ottawa will have to sell Canada91Ƶs importance for other things like security, said Fen Hampson, co-chair of the expert group.

91ƵIt91Ƶs not going to be easy,91Ƶ said Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University. 91ƵWe really have to up our game.91Ƶ

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne is making regular visits south of the border as part of the Team Canada engagement strategy. Canada91Ƶs ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, has been pounding the pavement from state to state, and attended the recent Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where she made Ottawa91Ƶs case.

But the report says there are limits to Canada91Ƶs charm offensive. Americans are taking a closer look at Canada, but not in a good way.

Trudeau faced significant pressure over Canada91Ƶs defence spending while in Washington for the NATO leaders91Ƶ summit earlier this month.

The prime minister promised to meet NATO91Ƶs target, the equivalent of two per cent of gross domestic product, by 2032. But he has been criticized for the lengthy timeline and a lack of detail on how Ottawa will make it happen.

Americans across political lines have also been extremely critical of Canada91Ƶs new tax on large foreign digital services companies. The Office of the United States Trade Representative has said it will do what91Ƶs necessary to stop the tax.

Canada must stop 91Ƶpulling at the tail feathers of the American eagle,91Ƶ positioning Canada as part of the solution instead of part of the problem, Beatty said.

That means the federal government should develop a Hippocratic Oath, like the one taken by physicians, he said.

91ƵFirst do no harm.91Ƶ





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