After a summer of historic tumult, the path to the presidency for both and this fall is becoming much clearer.

The Democratic vice president and the Republican former president will devote almost all of their remaining time and resources to just seven states. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. And their campaigns will try to focus their messages on three familiar issues 91裸聊视频� the economy, immigration and abortion 91裸聊视频� even in the midst of heated debates over character, culture and democracy.

The candidates in what will be their first meeting ever. The nation91裸聊视频檚 premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

In just 63 days, the final votes will be cast to decide which one of them will lead the world91裸聊视频檚 most powerful nation.

Privately, at least, both camps acknowledge that victory is no sure thing as they begin the eight-week sprint to Election Day. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in most national polls conducted since .

The Harris campaign still put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as 91裸聊视频渢he clear underdogs91裸聊视频� in the contest.

91裸聊视频淭here91裸聊视频檚 not a scenario here that91裸聊视频檚 easy,91裸聊视频� Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. 91裸聊视频淭he pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that91裸聊视频檚 just a reality.91裸聊视频�

Trump, meanwhile, rejects any indicators that suggest Harris is ahead even as he lashes out at her in deeply personal and sometimes apocalyptic terms, declaring that 91裸聊视频渙ur country is finished91裸聊视频� if she wins.

91裸聊视频淎s we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,91裸聊视频� said James Blair, the Trump campaign91裸聊视频檚 political director. 91裸聊视频淲e feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But there91裸聊视频檚 certainly plenty of work to be done.91裸聊视频�

The electoral map settles on seven states

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labor Day weekend.

In replacing Biden as the party91裸聊视频檚 nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democrats91裸聊视频� political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was among the senior GOP officials who between Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose feud threatened to undermine the Republican effort in the state. Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgia91裸聊视频檚 shift leftward.

91裸聊视频淭rump was up 5 or 6 points, and all over the course of a month it91裸聊视频檚 become much more competitive,91裸聊视频� he said.

Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, an adviser to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said even a slight uptick in the Black vote has the potential to give Harris the edge in North Carolina, pointing to Mecklenburg County, the home of the Charlotte metro area, but also fast-growing counties such as Durham and Wake.

91裸聊视频淚f Kamala Harris could get them to turn out at the rate of Republicans in rural North Carolina, game over for Republicans,91裸聊视频� Shumaker said of Black voters.

At the same time, Trump remains decidedly on offense in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which form the so-called Democratic 91裸聊视频渂lue wall91裸聊视频� that he narrowly carried in 2016 and barely lost in 2020.

Those seven states 91裸聊视频� in addition to swing districts in Nebraska and Maine that each award single Electoral College votes 91裸聊视频� will draw virtually all of the candidates91裸聊视频� attention and resources over the next eight weeks.

Trump is investing more advertising dollars in Pennsylvania than any other state through Election Day.

A Trump victory in Pennsylvania alone would make it much more difficult for Harris to earn the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Harris91裸聊视频� team insists she has multiple pathways to victory.

The Democrats91裸聊视频� organizing advantage

In the fight to frame the election on the air and reach voters in person, Democrats currently have a decided advantage.

Harris91裸聊视频� team is on pace to outspend Trump91裸聊视频檚 camp 2-to-1 in television advertising over the next two months. And even before Biden made way for Harris, the Democrats wielded superior campaign infrastructure in the states that matter most.

Harris91裸聊视频� team, which includes her campaign and an allied super PAC, have more than $280 million in television and radio reservations for the period between Tuesday and Election Day, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Trump91裸聊视频檚 team, by contrast, has $133 million reserved for the final stretch, although that number is expected to grow.

Trump91裸聊视频檚 side is actually narrowly outspending Harris91裸聊视频� on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, where both sides will spend more than $146 million between Tuesday and Election Day, according to AdImpact, a figure that dwarfs that of any other state. Georgia is drawing nearly $80 million in ad spending over the campaign91裸聊视频檚 final eight weeks.

But in the other five battleground states, Harris largely has the airwaves largely to herself 91裸聊视频� at least for now.

Trump and his allied super PACs have made only marginal ad reservations in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada to date. Harris91裸聊视频� team, by comparison, is investing no less than $21 million in each of the five states, according to an AdImpact analysis.

Harris91裸聊视频� team also boasts more than 300 coordinated offices and 2,000 staff on the ground in swing states, according to her campaign91裸聊视频檚 weekend memo.

Blair, the Trump campaign91裸聊视频檚 political director, disputes that Democrats have as big an organizing advantage as those numbers make it seem. He pointed to outside allies that will organize for Trump are well-funded, including a new effort backed by billionaire Elon Musk.

Trump91裸聊视频檚 campaign on Tuesday said it also has more than 100 dedicated campaign offices in key states, which are backed by another 200 existing GOP offices dedicated to Republican victories this fall.

Here91裸聊视频檚 what the polls say

Both candidates are locked in close races across the seven top swing states. Democratic pollster John Anzalone said Harris 91裸聊视频減ut the Democrats back in the game to where it91裸聊视频檚 kind of a toss-up.91裸聊视频�

But now comes the hard part, Anzalone said.

91裸聊视频淧ost Labor Day, when the bell rings, there is a battle for a slim universe of 91裸聊视频� you can call them anything you want: persuasion voters, swing voters, independent voters 91裸聊视频� and it91裸聊视频檚 pretty small, and that91裸聊视频檚 where each side gets a billion dollars,91裸聊视频� Anzalone said.

Many independents appear to find both candidates unsatisfying, according to in August.

For now, Harris also has a slight advantage on some key traits among independents, while she and Trump are about even on others.

For example, about 3 in 10 independents say that 91裸聊视频渉onest91裸聊视频� describes Harris better, while about 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better. About 3 in 10 also say that 91裸聊视频渃ommitted to democracy91裸聊视频� describes Harris better, while less than 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better.

The candidates were about equally likely to be perceived by independents as capable of winning the election, capable of handling a crisis, and 91裸聊视频渃aring about people like you.91裸聊视频�

Who is the 91裸聊视频榗hange candidate91裸聊视频�?

The race may ultimately be decided by whichever candidate can most successfully be cast as the 91裸聊视频渃hange candidate91裸聊视频� given that about 7 in 10 voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, based on conducted in late July after Biden withdrew from the race.

Trump was the face of change when he won the 2016 election. And even after serving in the White House for four years, he continues to energize millions of frustrated voters who embrace his brash leadership style and unwillingness to follow the traditional rules of politics.

Harris has been Biden91裸聊视频檚 vice president for nearly four years, yet the historic nature of her candidacy 91裸聊视频� she would be the first woman president 91裸聊视频� allows her to make a convincing case that she represents a new direction for the country, said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville.

Still, he91裸聊视频檚 worried about his party91裸聊视频檚 91裸聊视频渟evere underperformance91裸聊视频� in the so-called 91裸聊视频渂lue wall91裸聊视频� states in recent elections.

91裸聊视频淚91裸聊视频檒l feel good after the election,91裸聊视频� Carville said. 91裸聊视频淟et91裸聊视频檚 get the hay in the barn. There91裸聊视频檚 still a lot of hay out there in the field.91裸聊视频�